CASC

CASC Research · Weekly

Analyst Briefs
Week of October 12

One page per story, written by desk analysts and reviewed by desk heads. Each brief covers the numbers, the exhibits and what it means for the market.

Featured · 04 · Shipping Desk

October 12, 2026 2 min

A laden crude oil tanker sailing out of Port Arthur, Texas, on the US Gulf Coast

Tanker shortage strands Americas heavy crude: freight to Asia now runs ~$40/bbl, about 40% of a $100 barrel

Heavy crude is piling up in North and South America because tanker freight has become too expensive to ship it east. Refiners in Asia and Europe face shortages, and benchmark oil stays above $100 a barrel. The cause is a global tanker shortage: ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman, a workaround for the Hormuz crisis, are tying up vessels worldwide.

VLCC freight, Americas → Asia
$80M+

VLCC freight, Americas → Asia

vs. ~$10–15M at start of 2026

Freight to Asia per barrel
~$40/bbl

Freight to Asia per barrel

~40% of a $100 barrel

Western Canada Select (8 Oct)
$74/bbl

Western Canada Select (8 Oct)

ex-shipping, vs. $100+ benchmark

US refinery utilization
93.5%

US refinery utilization

highest in 28 years

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Analysts: Andrew

6 briefs · 1 issue

The library

Shipping

Tanker shortage strands Americas heavy crude: freight to Asia now runs ~$40/bbl, about 40% of a $100 barrel

2 min read$80M+

Shipping

Trafigura lists its VLCC fleet as Volare Shipping, raising ~$500M at a $1.2B valuation near the top of the tanker cycle

2 min read~$500M

Shipping

Container reliability slides to 27% on time in September, with Asia–Europe at just 4% and a 9.9-day average delay

2 min read27%

Shipping

South Korea completes its first commercial Arctic round trip to Europe, but sails well short of its cargo target

2 min read50 days

Energy

Tight supply lifts oil, diesel, LPG, gas and PJM power; ERCOT and CAISO soft

3 min read$95.09

Metals

Copper versus gold trade proposal

3 min read$10,000

Reports & pitches · PDF

The archive

Weekly Market Monitors, stock pitches and desk reports, published from the CASC Hub.

CASC

Market Report

02 · Metals desk

Copper +1.6% W/W as stocks fall; selective bullish view for 1-2 weeks

Thomas Landrove, Luka Dolidze, Jonny Isakov, Enzo, Misha, Gabriel, Gaangey Goenka, Mikael Abkarov · October 16, 2026

Metals desk weekly monitor: LME copper cash at $14,741/t as visible stocks fell 5.5% W/W on Chilean supply risk, though Escondida's preliminary deal trims upside. Small paper long in LME copper 3m; the broader basket stays neutral.

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CASC

Market Report

01 · Energy desk

Tight supply lifts oil, diesel, LPG, gas and PJM power; ERCOT and CAISO soft

October 15, 2026

Energy desk weekly monitor: WTI ~$95 (+3.5% w/w), ULSD $4.93/gal (+8.6%), propane +22.8% m/m and PJM power firm while ERCOT and CAISO soften. Bull (selective) stance; trade idea: long the Dec-26 diesel crack.

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CASC

Pitch

02 · Metals desk

Copper versus gold trade proposal

Gaangey Goenka · October 14, 2026

Conditional paper trade on a $100,000 assumed account: buy CPER and sell GLD short only after confirmation signals, up to $10,000 per leg, with net-dollar exits and a January 15, 2027 time stop.

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