Summary
WTI is near $95 (+3.5% w/w), ULSD $4.93/gal (+8.6%), propane +22.8% m/m and PJM spot hit $1,021/MWh, while gas (+6.3%) and EUAs (+5.4%) firmed and ERCOT and CAISO softened. Attacks around Hormuz and in Saudi Arabia are rebuilding the war premium in crude, and refining scarcity is showing up in diesel. The desk is bullish, selectively, over 1–4 weeks with medium conviction; the key risk is Hormuz reopening.
Key numbers
- WTI Nov-26, $/bbl
- $95.09
- ULSD Nov-26, $/gal
- $4.934
- Mont Belvieu propane, m/m
- +22.8%
- Henry Hub Nov-26, $/MMBtu
- $3.22
WTI Nov-26, $/bbl
+3.5% w/w (Oct 14)
ULSD Nov-26, $/gal
+8.6% w/w (Oct 13)
Mont Belvieu propane, m/m
$1.07/gal (Oct 14)
Henry Hub Nov-26, $/MMBtu
+6.3% w/w (Oct 9)
EXHIBIT 1Price monitor
EXHIBIT 2US stocks vs. 5-year average
Week to Oct 2. Products are short; only propane is long. Source: EIA via Oil & Gas 360, RBN.
Key drivers
- Crude: Hormuz and Saudi attacks rebuild the war premium; the WTI 2027 strip is at a record $84.
- Products: US distillate stocks are 12% below the 5-year average; 1.3M b/d of diesel exports lost; a Russia deal is worth only $1–2/bbl.
- LPG: Aramco October CP $680/t (+$55); US propane exports 2.46M b/d, stocks 17% above average.
- Power: PJM has 62 GW on maintenance and FERC rejected its load plan; ERCOT and CAISO are soft on wind, solar and storage.
- Carbon: EUAs at €88.05 on record EU gas; UKAs +9.6% on the EU–UK link; carbon relief at the EU summit is the risk.
- Weather & renewables: cold front Oct 19, then warm; US solar +22% YTD; 16 reactors offline.
EXHIBIT 3Nat gas focus: Henry Hub curve
Desk view: bull, near term.
Why gas is firm
- Supply: Hurricane Isaias shut in 59% of Gulf offshore gas on Oct 9 (25% by Oct 12); L48 output 110.6 vs. 113.3 Bcf/d in Aug–Sep.
- Storage: EIA +85 Bcf vs. +79 expected and +96 5-year; 3,500 Bcf, +2% vs. the 5-year and narrowing.
- LNG pull: feedgas ~20 Bcf/d; EU storage ~75–78% as Hormuz curbs Qatari and UAE LNG.
- Caps: warmer forecasts; a faster Gulf recovery or a mild winter is the downside.
Risks to the view
- Hormuz deal: crude, the diesel crack and the LPG arb compress.
- Mild El Niño winter: erases the heating-oil, propane, gas and PJM premium.
- Policy: carbon relief at the EU summit; DOE orders cap power spikes.
Catalysts ahead
- Thu: EIA oil and gas stocks; EU Council.
- Fri: DOE PJM emergency order lapses.
- Mon: cold front hits the Midwest and Northeast.
- Nov 3: US midterms: export-ban risk.
The original document
Energy weekly monitor, Oct 15 (PDF)
As written by the desk, in its own format.
Educational research, not investment advice. Prepared by student analysts of the Commodities and Shipping Club at Northeastern University from the sources cited above.
